Just eight months after President Trump picked JD Vance to be his vice president, Vance is already positioned to be MAGA’s heir apparent for 2028.
- “I think it’s inevitable at this point that Vance will be the [GOP] nominee in 2028,” Sen. Jim Banks (R-Indiana), a close Trump ally, tells Axios. “He’s the future of the America First movement and he’s already proven himself.”
Why it matters: Many of Trump’s longest-serving aides and most fervent supporters now see the vice president as the vehicle to lock in Trump’s worldview for at least the next decade
- In their view, Trump broke the old Republican Party — and Vance can finish building the new one.
Driving the news: Vance has won over Trump’s base with combative public performances, by savvily managing relationships with Trump’s team, and by showing unwavering fealty to Trump’s vision.
- Vance’s dressing down of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office was criticized on both sides of the Atlantic and even by some Republicans. But picking the fight drew cheers from the Trump faithful.
- Vance’s pugilistic speech at the Munich Security Conference offended many European leaders — but enthralled Republicans back home who liked the tough talk.
A person close to Donald Trump Jr. — who has been a key Vance validator going back to Vance’s 2022 Senate race in Ohio — told Axios the president’s son is “over the moon with JD’s performance so far, and feels completely vindicated for spending his political capital last summer pushing his dad to pick Vance as vice president.”
- Vance has also impressed financial moguls in Trump’s orbit.
At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in February, Vance easily won a straw poll of potential 2028 GOP nominees with 61%. Steve Bannon — an official in Trump’s first White House, who now presides over the powerful “War Room” podcast — came in a distant second with 12%.
- Jim McLaughlin, the pollster who conducted the survey, said Vance won because he’s “viewed as the closest thing to Donald Trump.”
Vance also has enjoyed a boost from the growing MAGA media sphere of podcasts and influencers.
- Matt Boyle, Washington bureau chief for Trump-friendly Breitbart News, said that when it comes to 2028, “Vance is clearly the far, runaway frontrunner, and no one else can hold a candle to him right now.”
- “He’s also been very smart about developing strong relationships with a lot of the MAGA America First OG’s, and with Congress in passing President Trump’s agenda and confirming the president’s Cabinet,” Boyle added.
MAGA media star Jack Posobiec, who has many ties with Trump administration figures and traveled with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Ukraine, regularly refers to Vance as “48” — the 48th president.
- Vance, 40, is a digital native — and, in some ways, a more natural online fit than his boss.
Reality check: Even some Vance boosters concede he doesn’t have the showmanship that made Trump a reality TV star and political phenomenon.
- Some Democratic strategists scoff at the idea that Vance — who’d been in the Senate for just 18 months when Trump picked him for VP — could be a successful national candidate.
The intrigue: The early enthusiasm for Vance has put a target on his back. Some in Vance’s orbit are keeping an eye on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a former Trump rival.
- DeSantis now has a good relationship with Trump — which some have interpreted as an effort by the president to keep potential Vance rivals around, so the vice president doesn’t get too comfortable.
- “This president will never be a lame duck and he won’t be treated like one,” said one Trump adviser. “So if I had to guess, DeSantis acts as a little bit of a buffer.”
- When asked by Fox News’ Bret Baier last month whether he views Vance as his successor — the GOP’s 2028 nominee — Trump said it’s “too early.”
- A Vance spokesperson declined to comment.
The big picture: Some Trump aides and allies see the Yale Law-educated Vance as the brainy version of MAGA.
- While Trump is a blunt-force object, they see Vance as a writerly intellectual who will personally compose his 20-paragraph posts on X.
- But they also hope his wonkiness could bring a new level of validation of Trump’s worldview into the future of U.S. politics.
One person familiar with the Trump-Vance dynamic compared it to the president’s relationship with White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, the chief architect of much of Trump’s domestic policy agenda: Trump sets the direction, and Miller fills in the details.