A recent report from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) delivers a sobering warning for future retirees: a dual-income couple retiring in early 2033 is projected to receive $18,100 less in annual Social Security benefits compared to those retiring today.
This sharp 24% reduction is expected to occur just months after the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund—which helps fund benefits through payroll taxes—is projected to run out by late 2032. The primary reason: the number of retirees is expected to outpace the number of working individuals paying into the system.
Once the OASI Trust Fund is depleted, the government will no longer be able to pay full Social Security benefits. Instead, benefit payments will be limited to what can be funded by incoming tax revenue—leading to immediate and significant cuts for millions of Americans.
The Cuts Will Grow Over Time
Even more concerning, the CRFB notes that the cuts won’t stop there. Because benefit obligations are growing faster than dedicated revenues, the gap will widen further over time. By 2099, the average benefit reduction could exceed 30% unless legislative action is taken.
What These Cuts Could Mean for You
The CRFB outlines how various types of households may be impacted (figures are in nominal terms and not adjusted for inflation):
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Average dual-earner couple: $18,100 less per year
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Typical single-earner couple: $13,600 annual reduction
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Low-income dual-earner couple: $11,000 less per year
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High-income couples: Up to $24,000 reduction annually
While higher-income households may see the largest absolute cuts, lower-income families will bear a disproportionately heavier burden, as the reductions will make up a larger share of their overall income.
How Many Americans Could Be Affected?
As of June, approximately 67 million Americans were receiving Social Security benefits, according to the Social Security Administration.
A recent AARP survey of over 3,500 adults found that 96% of Americans—regardless of age or political affiliation—believe Social Security will be important to them in 2025 and beyond. The reliance is particularly acute among older adults: nearly two-thirds of seniors rely on Social Security as a primary income source, with another 21% depending on it to some extent.
Conflicting Projections: CRFB vs. Social Security Trustees
The CRFB’s projection of a 24% cut by 2033 is slightly more dire than the 23% reduction by 2034 forecasted by the Social Security and Medicare Trustees in their June report. The difference is due in part to CRFB accounting for the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)—a major tax and benefits package signed into law on July 4th.
The CRFB explains that the OBBBA’s increase in the senior standard deduction and other provisions will further reduce revenue generated through taxation of Social Security benefits. As a result, the benefit cuts could deepen if the bill’s temporary measures are made permanent. Notably, the $6,000 expanded senior deduction under OBBBA is scheduled to take effect from 2025 through 2028.
What Can Be Done to Protect Full Benefits?
To avoid these drastic cuts, Congress must act—and soon. According to the AARP and CRFB, policymakers have several options:
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Increase revenue, such as raising payroll taxes
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Control costs, possibly by gradually increasing the full retirement age
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Restructure benefits, including reducing payments for higher-income earners or raising the payroll tax cap
Without timely and decisive legislative action, millions of Americans stand to lose a significant portion of the benefits they’ve been promised—and paid into—for decades.